ModelMixBeta
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ModelMix

Model Builder

Weight seven real football factors for offense and defense. The frozen production engine turns your inputs into a fair line and a market edge.

14active factors·Draft saved in this browser

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Model data · Preseason baseline

How Your Model Works

We collect the NFL data. ModelMix converts each team’s performance onto a common point scale. You decide what matters most using the sliders below. Your weights combine to create your model’s projected spread.

How the Model Works

ModelMix converts real football data into team ratings, compares the matchup, applies your factor weights, and turns the result into a fair line — then measures that line against the market.

  1. 01Real football inputs

    ModelMix runs on seven football factors, each measured independently for offense and defense: Passing EPA, Rush EPA, Success Rate, Explosive Rate, Turnover Rate, Red Zone Efficiency, and Pressure. Those are the only inputs — for ModelMix Default and for every custom model.

  2. 02From data to team ratings

    Historical and current-season play-by-play is turned into a team-level rating for each factor — how efficiently a team throws the ball, how well its defense limits explosive plays, how it finishes drives, and so on.

  3. 03The matchup

    For a given game the engine lines each team's offensive strengths up against the other team's defensive strengths, factor by factor, to produce a matchup advantage.

  4. 04Your weights

    Your sliders decide how much each factor matters in your model. Turning up Passing EPA increases how much Passing EPA moves your projection — it does not quietly change any other factor. Every slider is independent.

  5. 05Fair line

    The weighted matchup advantage is run through the published ModelMix engine and converted into a projected fair spread for the game.

  6. 06Market edge

    ModelMix then compares that fair line with the current market line. Edge is the size of that disagreement between your model and the market — not a probability, a confidence level, or a claim about who wins.

  7. 07Early in the season

    When a season starts there isn't enough current-season football to rate teams reliably, so the model leans on prior-season ratings. As teams play, current-season form is given progressively more weight; by ten games played the prior season is fully phased out.

  8. 08A frozen, published engine

    “Published” means the conversion and calibration are fixed for a model version — not quietly retuned game to game to chase recent results. Your sliders change factor emphasis; they never trigger hidden recalibration. ModelMix Default is the published baseline weighting; a custom model runs on the exact same engine with your factor weights instead.

  9. 09Built and tested

    The Beta engine and its season-transition behavior were evaluated against past NFL seasons before this version was published. ModelMix is an analytics and modeling tool — it is not AI, not a betting system, and makes no claim of predictive edge or profitability.

The current published model is ModelMix Default (Beta). Factor definitions and the seven-factor structure are visible in the Model Builder.

Factor Calibration

Every factor uses an independent 0–100 weight. Moving one never changes another.

Click the information icon to learn each statistic.

Passing EPA — Offense

Passing Offense

How efficiently the offense creates expected points through the passing game.

0255075100

Passing EPA — Defense

Passing Defense

How effectively the defense limits opposing passing efficiency.

0255075100

Rush EPA — Offense

Rushing Offense

How efficiently the offense creates expected points through designed rushing plays.

0255075100

Rush EPA — Defense

Rushing Defense

How effectively the defense limits opposing rushing efficiency.

0255075100

Success Rate — Offense

Offensive Efficiency

How consistently the offense stays ahead of schedule on eligible plays.

0255075100

Success Rate — Defense

Defensive Efficiency

How consistently the defense prevents opposing offenses from staying ahead of schedule.

0255075100

Explosive Rate — Offense

Explosiveness

How frequently the offense creates explosive passing or rushing plays.

0255075100

Explosive Rate — Defense

Explosive Play Defense

How effectively the defense prevents explosive passing or rushing plays.

0255075100

Turnover Rate — Offense

Ball Security

How well the offense protects possessions after ModelMix stabilization.

0255075100

Turnover Rate — Defense

Takeaways

How effectively the defense creates possession-changing mistakes.

0255075100

Red Zone Efficiency — Offense

Finishing Drives

How efficiently the offense converts red-zone opportunities into points.

0255075100

Red Zone Efficiency — Defense

Red Zone Defense

How effectively the defense limits scoring from red-zone opportunities.

0255075100

Pressure — Offense

Pass Protection

How well the offense performs in the pressure and pass-protection battle.

0255075100

Pressure — Defense

Pass Rush

How effectively the defense generates pressure on opposing passing attacks.

0255075100

These projections use the live nflverse market board and the ModelMix Beta v1 production engine. Games remain in chronological kickoff order while your factor weights recalculate each fair line and market edge instantly. Weights display as whole numbers; stored precision is unchanged.

Power Rankings

ModelMix Default

Data · PRESEASON BASELINE

Points shown are each team's fair margin versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field, from the frozen production engine at the current factor weights. Not a projection of any specific game.